Welcome to the new site

If you were visiting this site expecting to get the Intel Network Data Exchange (INDX) wiki, it has been moved to indx.groupintel.com. In addition, there is now an open Wiki at wiki.groupintel.com.  Please feel free to use the open wiki as much as possible. This site has been re-purposed to promote thinking on concepts of group intelligence or “wisdom of crowds” styled approaches to thinking about hard problems. The site launch is taking a little bit longer than expected, but thanks for visiting early.

GroupIntel Predictions

Visit our test bed Prediction Market to participate in the GroupIntel predictions.  We are testing new software that actually lets analysts compete against each other in making international security predictions.

The first closed prediction was for U.S. casualties in Iraq for June 2008. The market predicted 30.  The actual number was 31.

Current results for bin Laden captured or killed by January 20, 2009:

Predictify

Predictify realizes the dream of group intelligence for the general population, much in the way we’d like to harness it for national security and intelligence issues.  Registration is free and users can predict the outcome of a large number of events including pop culture, sports, international issues, etc.  Users can also propose questions to the Predictify userbase and even set a financial purse that will be paid out to those users that correctly predicted the response in the most timely manner.  I won $0.39 predicting that Hillary would drop out in June.  Once you’ve made a prediction, you also get to see some very basic results which are clearly insightful into which way the group is leaning.  If you sponsor a question, I’m assuming you get much more detailed response data and you can also restrict who is allowed to respond based on some simple respondent criteria. Read the story »