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Intel Centers Losing Anti - Terror Focus

This story is being spun as a negative, when in reality a multi-disciplinary all-hazards approach is required.  Terrorism is too narrow a focus and diminishes the role that intelligence and pre-incident planning play in addressing other threats.  Unfortunately, the government applied their resources against the wrong model and the “intel” component is replaced with a “sharing” dynamic that doesn’t provide the same yield as a true intel fusion center.  Maybe it is time to revisit the TEW Expansion program.

Local intelligence-sharing centers set up after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks have had their anti-terrorism mission diluted by a focus on run-of-the-mill street crime and hazards such as hurricanes, a government report concludes.

Of the 43 ”fusion centers” already established, only two focus exclusively on preventing terrorism, the Government Accountability Office found in a national survey obtained by The Associated Press. Center directors complain they were hampered by lack of guidance from Washington and were flooded by often redundant information from multiple computer systems.

Administration officials defended the centers and said encompassing all sorts of crimes in the intelligence dragnet is the best way to catch terrorists. (NY Times)

Define “Bigger”

(cross-posted at Haft of the Spear)

I don’t get Insight Magazine so I don’t know the full story that goes along with this teaser:

The U.S. intelligence community has assessed that Osama bin Laden has benefited from a secure haven in Pakistan that allows him to plan a major attack on the U.S.

It took all of about an hour after this to hit the Web before various colleagues started to exchange thoughts on the matter, and like a well indoctrinated, NIC-conditioned drone I threw this wrench into the works:

“Define the term ‘bigger’. We’re assuming “bigger” means more spectacular in approach.”

The numerous weaknesses in airline security are well documented. The “security theater” that surrounds most supposed high-value targets/industries/infrastructure means there is less of a chance of a hijacking, but a bomb in the cargo hold – or a gas-filled tanker into city hall - is all too real an option. Hell, ratchet up the poop-to-lettuce ratio and you can send dozens of infidels to the hospital and probably kill a few too.

Bigger defined as more spectacular is an option, but the goal is terrorism, not something suitable for Broadway. As soon as airlines could fly after 9/11 people got on board; when the DC beltway snipers were loose everyone who had to leave their car was OJ Simpson (the Hertz version). There is no reason why the next grand plan might not originate farther down the amazing scale because simple works and if done close to home it hits close to home.

Consider these figures from data I borrowed from the Bookings Institution (PDF):

• IEDs have killed an average of 23 GIs/month since the start of the war.
• October of last year saw a peak of 52 troop deaths via IEDs.

The tactic varies, but generally speaking we’re talking about taking out 3-4 guys at a time in a HMMWV or on a dismounted patrol.

Now, add a little crude homeland-based math:

• A city bus in a major metro area at rush hour might hold 80 people.
• A light rail car might hold more than 100
• A vehicle-borne IED stopped in the middle of a traffic jam might take out a dozen or more people depending on the size of the vehicle and charge.

Coordinated to take place on the same day at the same time (London calling), cells in just the top ten US cities (let’s say a dozen-per – somewhere between the Miami 7 and Toronto 18) it is not inconceivable that a coordinated IED attack could kill significantly more innocents in the US than GIs in Iraq, and three times as many as those killed on 9/11 (80 bus passengers x 12 bombers x 10 cities = 9,600)

Is that “bigger” enough for UBL?

“Tanji, you’re just trying to justify this post.”

Possibly, but if the methodology of our adversary is violence-driven political/religious change, I can’t think of a better way to ride the recent domestic political wave than to focus my attention on the electorate.

Thoughts?

Posted by Mike Tanji

Saffron Technologies focusing “On Intelligence”

Reading Jeff Hawkins book On Intelligence, I kept wondering what new technologies might be able to exploit his paradigm shifting approach to how the brain works.  Several months ago, I had the opportunity to review a few whitepapers from a company called Saffron Technologies and was consistently reminded of On Intelligence as I tried to put my mind around the solutions they were proposing.  It turns out the connection between the two works was appropriate as the Saffron folks admitted to taking the same approach as Hawkins.  As described on their web site:

“We provide biologically-inspired entity analytic and prediction solutions that rapidly sort through massive data sets to discover all you need to know about relationships and similarities among entities - people, places and things – much like our own memory works – except Saffron never forgets!”

If you have any interest in this type of emerging technology, I’d recommend you check out the Saffron Technologies web site.  [Saffron Technologies]

Welcome to the new site

If you were visiting this site expecting to get the Intel Network Data Exchange (INDX) wiki, it has been moved to indx.groupintel.com. In addition, there is now an open Wiki at wiki.groupintel.com.  Please feel free to use the open wiki as much as possible. This site has been re-purposed to promote thinking on concepts of group intelligence or “wisdom of crowds” styled approaches to thinking about hard problems. The site launch is taking a little bit longer than expected, but thanks for visiting early.

Wisdom of Crowds

The first of our featured books…

While our culture generally trusts experts and distrusts the wisdom of the masses, New Yorker business columnist Surowiecki argues that “under the right circumstances, groups are remarkably intelligent, and are often smarter than the smartest people in them.” To support this almost counterintuitive proposition, Surowiecki explores problems involving cognition (we’re all trying to identify a correct answer), coordination (we need to synchronize our individual activities with others) and cooperation (we have to act together despite our self-interest). His rubric, then, covers a range of problems, including driving in traffic, competing on TV game shows, maximizing stock market performance, voting for political candidates, navigating busy sidewalks, tracking SARS and designing Internet search engines like Google. [Amazon Link]

Firefighter Help on Terrorism

It would seem the ACLU is a little late to the game here. Multi-disciplinary intel gathering at the local level has been in effect since 1997.

Firefighters in major cities are being trained to take on a new role as lookouts for terrorism, raising concerns of eroding their standing as American icons and infringing on people’s privacy. Unlike police, firefighters and emergency medical personnel don’t need warrants to access hundreds of thousands of homes and buildings each year, putting them in a position to spot behavior that could indicate terrorist activity or planning. But there are fears that they could lose the faith of a skeptical public by becoming the eyes of the government, looking for suspicious items such as building blueprints or bomb-making manuals or materials. [Associated Press]

GroupIntel Prediction # 1

The Virtual University

One day Professor Jeremy Kemp entered his classroom and found himself next to a student dressed as a gigantic monarch butterfly.

But Kemp was not startled in the least that one of his students had sprouted wings. Since he started teaching at the virtual campus of San Jose State University’s School of Library and Information Science, students have also appeared as robots and giant bowls of Jell-O.

“I am looking at representations that they create, and that’s just as valid as real life,” said Kemp, assistant director of the virtual campus, which opened in May. “I have a sense of being there and being with the person.”

San Jose State is one of a skyrocketing number of colleges and universities across the country to make the leap into the virtual frontier using Second Life, the Internet-based world created by Linden Lab of San Francisco. [Story via San Jose Mercury News]

Haft of the Spear

Mike Tanji dominated the early GroupIntel Blog before deciding to secure his own brand at Haft of the Spear where he writes about all things intelligence and security related. [Visit Haft of the Spear Blog]