GroupIntel Predictions
June 16, 2008
Visit our test bed Prediction Market to participate in the GroupIntel predictions. We are testing new software that actually lets analysts compete against each other in making international security predictions.
The first closed prediction was for U.S. casualties in Iraq for June 2008. The market predicted 30. The actual number was 31.
Current results for bin Laden captured or killed by January 20, 2009:
Predictify
June 16, 2008
Predictify realizes the dream of group intelligence for the general population, much in the way we’d like to harness it for national security and intelligence issues. Registration is free and users can predict the outcome of a large number of events including pop culture, sports, international issues, etc. Users can also propose questions to the Predictify userbase and even set a financial purse that will be paid out to those users that correctly predicted the response in the most timely manner. I won $0.39 predicting that Hillary would drop out in June. Once you’ve made a prediction, you also get to see some very basic results which are clearly insightful into which way the group is leaning. If you sponsor a question, I’m assuming you get much more detailed response data and you can also restrict who is allowed to respond based on some simple respondent criteria. Read more
Play Warcraft? No job at the CIA for you…
June 16, 2008
Interesting article, but it seems we should be focusing on ways to bring these folks in to exploit new and emerging technologies, including gaming. Last I checked there were tens of millions of people interacting in these worlds that transcend national boundaries.
Do you trade music with your pals? Use Facebook to keep in touch with far-away friends? Play World of Warcraft as a girl, when you’re really a boy? Check your e-mail a little too often?
Well, then, you may not be trustworthy enough to become a spy. [Wired]
